The Toronto Maple Leafs crashed out of the Stanley Cup Playoffs on Friday [12 May], eliminated in the second round by the Florida Panthers – a team that snuck into the postseason on the back of a fairy-tale run from third-choice netminder Alex Lyon – and the city is already on fire.
While the Maple Leafs ended their dumbfounding streak of playoff futility, their ‘run’ to the second round is not enough to stem the tides of despair swirling around Scotiabank Arena. Toronto, despite their regular-season success and series win over the Tampa Bay Lightning, are still seen as losers and the lowest-hanging punchline in the NHL.
With that, many will wonder about what should happen next in the ‘centre of the hockey universe’. Is it time for a change behind the bench? Should the general manager be offered a new contract – and would he even accept it? What next for the ‘core four’ of Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander?
Reform lurks around the corner in The Six, but nobody – at least on the outside – can agree on what changes should follow.
With that, senior reporter – and Maple Leafs fan – Luke James power ranks the options available to the Maple Leafs after their 4-1 series defeat to the Panthers.
4) Toronto Maple Leafs should ‘run back core four for another season’
There is simply no appetite in Toronto for the Maple Leafs to roll into next season with Kyle Dubas as general manager, Sheldon Keefe as head coach, and the same superstar players on the roster. After so many years of abject playoff disappointment, something has to give.
Is that fair in the wake of a first series win in almost two decades? Possibly not, but only to those unfamiliar with the trials and tribulations of this cursed squad.
In the Matthews era, the Maple Leafs have been downed in the playoffs by the Boston Bruins, Washington Capitals, Columbus Blue Jackets, Montreal Canadiens, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Florida.
They can be excused for formative defeats to favourited squads from Boston and Washington – but the capitulations that followed versus underdogs from Columbus and Montreal were unforgiven, eroding any goodwill amongst the fanbase.
In those dreadful defeats to Columbus and Montreal, Toronto’s stars went AWOL. Marner – a potential hometown hero – was uniquely disappointing and melted under the pressure of an expectant city.
This version of the Maple Leafs, in other words, have run out of road. After fumbling the bag against the Panthers, change is required in Toronto. But should those reforms be made on the ice, behind the bench, or in the boardroom?
3) Toronto Maple Leafs should release free agent general manager Kyle Dubas
With Dubas’ contract set to expire this summer, the Maple Leafs have a decision to make – should they extend their free-agent general manager?
In short, yes – they should.
While there are reasons to move on from the 40-year-old, he has shown himself to be a shrewd operator through five seasons at the helm in Toronto.
Dubas has modernised the Maple Leafs from the inside-out, reforming the analysis, scouting, and sports science departments to take advantage of the club’s financial might.
Kyle Dubas won the AHL’s Calder Cup with the Toronto Marlies in 2018 (Image: Christian Bonin)
Those efforts have paid dividends in the regular-season, with the Maple Leafs now firmly established as one of the strongest teams in hockey. Toronto boasts a second-best regular-season record in the Dubas era.
However, the Maple Leafs are yet to truly breakthrough in the playoffs, with their series win over the Lightning snapping a 19-year drought.
They are still miles from achieving their ultimate goal, winning the Stanley Cup, and mistakes from the front office have contributed to the deficit.
Acquiring Matt Murray from the Ottawa Senators, for him to only make inconsistent 26 appearances, was a major mistake. As was signing free-agent goaltender Petr Mrazek the previous season. The Maple Leafs also lost the Nazem Kadri trade and have seen a handful of productive players, most notably Zach Hyman, walk away as free agents.
That said, there have been mastermind performances from Dubas along the way. He quickly recovered from the Mrazek signing, drafted stud prospect Matthew Knies in the second round, and found a diamond in the rough in Jack Campbell.
If – and it is a significant ‘if’ – Dubas wants to remain a Maple Leafs, decision-makers in Toronto must make it happen.
2) Toronto Maple Leafs should trade a member of their ‘core four’
Firstly, let’s dispel the assumption that the Maple Leafs are built around a ‘core four’ and remember that defenceman Morgan Reilly is the longest-tenured player on the team and earns more than Nylander.
If Matthews, Marner, captain Tavares, and Nylander are now potential trade candidates, Reilly must be held to the same standard.
With the Maple Leafs, there is always hyperbole – so, let’s aim to add a dose of reality to the debate.
Matthews is an elite skater, who is on pace to become the best player in the storied history of the Maple Leafs. He endured a down year last time around, but visibly battled knocks during the regular-season and playoffs. The American wants to stay in Toronto, performed strongly against Tampa Bay, and boasts the raw athletic ability to be impactful for years to come.
Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs (Image: Brian Murphy, All-Pro Reels)
In other words, the Maple Leafs would need to secure a stunning return to consider trading the 25-year-old – who will become eligible for a contract extension next month.
Tavares, with full no-move protection in his contract, is also staying – which leaves Nylander, Marner, and Reilly.
Nylander, like Matthews, is eligible for a contract extension this summer and a near-perfect fit for playing in Toronto. The Swede is unflappable, elevates his performances in the playoffs, and possess the mercurial streak required to tilt the ice on his own.
If the Leafs trade Nylander, they would likely come out on the losing side.
Reilly is the longest-tenured Maple Leaf, inked a long-term contract last summer, and was a star performer against the Bolts in round one. Trading the Canadian would be problematic, forcing Toronto to completely rebuild their defence – which is possible but seems unlikely.
Could Marner be the odd-man-out? The former fourth overall pick tends to shrink in the playoffs, despite being regarded as one of the best right wingers in the sport. He is prickly under pressure and seems to grip his stick too tightly in the moments that matter the most.
Regardless, Marner is world-class and would probably flourish in a market where the lights are just a little bit less bright.
Any ‘core four’ trade is fraught with difficulties for the Maple Leafs – but there is a growing sense that ‘something has to give’ at Scotiabank Arena. Could it be Marner, Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, or Reilly?
1) Toronto Maple Leafs should fire head coach Sheldon Keefe
Keefe is the most expendable member of the Maple Leafs by some distance, despite his remarkable regular-season record and (until now) unbreakable bond with Dubas.
The Canadian has made a number of questionable decisions throughout his time with the Maple Leafs, but three stand above the rest as examples of where he was outcoached in vital moments.
In the bubble playoffs with the series on the line, he rolled the dice and threw Nylander onto the ice as a centreman. The Swede hadn’t played through the middle all season and the Leafs were beaten by Columbus.
Sheldon Keefe, Toronto Maple Leafs (Image: NHL)
Jon Cooper out-manoeuvred the Keefe Leafs in the playoffs last season, feasting on a second line of Tavares, Nylander, and Alex Kerfoot – a combination that never looked like working in the playoffs and was revisited again this term.
And then he was roundly beaten by Paul Maurice’s unheralded cardiac cats.
Keefe will enjoy success at the highest level. But it won’t – based on recent evidence – be in Toronto with this group of players.
As a result, he is extremely vulnerable – despite being part of Dubas’ long-term inner circle.
