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Elite League Permutations – what is left to be decided in the final fortnight?

Jānis Voris, Fife Flyers (Image: William Cherry)

We’re into the final two weeks of the Elite League season – and the title remains within reach for the Belfast Giants, Nottingham Panthers, and Sheffield Steelers.

While the last-place Fife Flyers have known their fate for a while, most clubs have something worth fighting for on the ice as the calendar flips into April and the postseason sweeps into view.

With that in mind, let’s dive into the late-season permutations across the Elite League.

Title Contenders – Belfast, Nottingham, Sheffield

The Giants skate into the final fortnight of the regular-season in pole position – they’ve already won silverware this year (beating the Cardiff Devils to claim the Challenge Cup) and lead the way with 74 points.

Belfast have four fixtures left to play, three of which are on home ice at the SSE Arena.

  • 29 March – Belfast Giants .vs. Fife Flyers
  • 30 March – Belfast Giants .vs. Manchester Storm
  • 5 April – Belfast Giants .vs. Nottingham Panthers
  • 6 April – Nottingham Panthers .vs. Belfast Giants

Danny Stewart and his Panthers trail the Giants by two points – but have one less game to play than their Northern Irish rivals.

  • 29 March – Guildford Flames .vs. Nottingham Panthers
  • 5 April – Belfast Giants .vs. Nottingham Panthers
  • 6 April – Nottingham Panthers .vs. Belfast Giants

If the Panthers win their three remaining games, they’ll finish the season on 78 points.

Danny Stewart, Nottingham Panthers (Image: Panthers Images) jason grande Elite League PermutationsElite League Permutations: Danny Stewart, Nottingham Panthers (Image: Panthers Images)

The Steelers are one point further back in the title fight, albeit with four games remaining on their fixture list.

  • 29 March – Sheffield Steelers .vs. Dundee Stars
  • 30 March – Fife Flyers .vs. Sheffield Steelers
  • 5 April – Sheffield Steelers .vs. Cardiff Devils
  • 6 April – Coventry Blaze .vs. Sheffield Steelers

In their best-case-scenario, Aaron Fox’s side would finish the season on 79 points.

Tie-Breaking Criteria:

The Giants therefore need five points from their final four games to guarantee themselves as regular-season champions – which they could achieve with two wins and a regulation time defeat.

If Belfast fall short of the 90-point mark and finish the season tied on points with the Steelers or Panthers, the Elite League’s tie-breaking criteria will come into play:

  1. total number of points;
  2. total number of regulation-time wins;
  3. total number of wins (regulation, overtime, and penalties);
  4. results played between the relevant teams, applying the criteria above.

The Steelers lead the way in regulation-time wins (31), with Belfast and Nottingham trailing by one.

Battle for Fourth – Cardiff, Coventry

It’ll take an all-time collapse from Cardiff for the Coventry Blaze to steal fourth-place in the final fortnight of the season.

Kevin Moore’s squad trail the Devils by four points – but the Blaze only have three games left to play and would lose out on the first tie-breaker if they finished the season level on points with Cardiff.

Elite League Permutations: Kevin Moore, Coventry Blaze (Image: Scott Wiggins)

Elite League Permutations: Kevin Moore, Coventry Blaze (Image: Scott Wiggins)

  • 30 March – Coventry Blaze .vs. Glasgow Clan
  • 4 April – Cardiff Devils .vs. Coventry Blaze
  • 6 April – Coventry Blaze .vs. Sheffield Steelers

The Devils need two points from their final two games to clinch fourth-place, making it their position to lose.

  • 28 March – Cardiff Devils .vs. Glasgow Clan
  • 30 March – Dundee Stars .vs. Cardiff Devils
  • 4 April – Cardiff Devils .vs. Coventry Blaze
  • 5 April – Sheffield Steelers .vs. Cardiff Devils

Fifth-Place Fight – Coventry, Guildford, Glasgow

The Guildford Flames require a four-point swing to overtake the Blaze – unlikely, but not out of the realms of possibility.

  • 29 April – Guildford Flames .vs. Nottingham Panthers
  • 4 April – Manchester Storm .vs. Guildford Flames
  • 5 April – Guildford Flames .vs. Glasgow Clan

The Glasgow Clan are all-but-mathematically excluded from the race for fifth, but could challenge Guildford for sixth place.

Landon Bow, Glasgow Clan (Image: Al Goold)

Elite League Permutations: Landon Bow, Glasgow Clan (Image: Al Goold)

As the Flames lead Glasgow in regulation-time wins by three, the Clan will likely need a five-point pendulum shift to climb a place in the standings.

  • 28 April – Cardiff Devils .vs. Glasgow Clan
  • 30 April – Coventry Blaze .vs. Glasgow Clan
  • 4 April – Glasgow Clan .vs. Dundee Stars
  • 5 April – Guildford Flames .vs. Glasgow Clan

Basement Battle – Dundee, Manchester

It’ll take a wild turn of events for the Manchester Storm to overtake the Dundee Stars – who lead the race for the final playoff place by four points (46-42).

Dundee require three points from their final four games (or for Manchester to drop points) to clinch their playoff place.

  • 29 April – Sheffield Steelers .vs. Dundee Stars
  • 30 April – Dundee Stars .vs. Cardiff Devils
  • 4 April – Glasgow Clan .vs. Dundee Stars
  • 6 April – Dundee Stars .vs. Fife Flyers

The Storm face Belfast (a), Guildford (h), and Fife (a) to finish the campaign.

Future Plans – Fife

The Flyers will be forced to answer existential questions this offseason, with ownership listing the franchise for sale earlier this year.

If there is a takeover (because a takeover isn’t guaranteed), will the new leadership team in Fife keep the Flyers in the Elite League or move the team down the pyramid?

If there isn’t a takeover or new ownership would prefer to compete in another league, we’re skating head-first into a nine-team Elite League next season.

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